Well, it's already underway, but here's how I think this will playout.

115 dead, that's including civilians, terrorists, and army/police.

53% turnout.

17% turnout among Sunni.

I don't think it's going to be some rousing, super-success, but I don't think it's going to be the apocalyptic bloodbath some would like.

Two thoughts from Andrew Sullivan's blog, both of which I agree with.

Here's the first, from a fan's letter.

There will be NO measure of voter turn out that will satisfy those who wish to oppose the Administration. Look at Afghanistan

I couldn't agree more. There will also be those whose hatred of Bush and his policies precludes them from recognizing or even supporting any sort of success in Iraq or the Middle East.

Now, here's Sullivan's response:

But is there a measure of failure that supporters of the administration would take seriously?

Ah, that's an even better question. What will it take for Bush's die-hards and yes-men to "see the truth" with regard to Iraq? 30% turnout? 500 dead civilians? 1000?