Something that irks me in this post-election cycle is the continuing persistence of simple conservatives and simple liberals to maintain that there is a cut-and-dried, Civil War-like division between Red and Blue in this country.

Don't buy it.

Sure, it's fun to laugh at those maps that show the U.S. splitting into the United States of Canada and JesusLand. And it's charming, in a 19^th century sort of way, I suppose, to joke of secession. Just be warned: The states that went for Kerry didn't all go for Kerry; and the state's that went for Bush didn't all go for Bush.

It is much better to look at the county-by-county voting breakdown, or even these tricky, "purple maps."

Best of all, though, is to checkout these numbers that I've crunched!

First let us look at Popular Vote:

(While I stand by these numbers, I should note that I did almost all arithmetic by hand.)

Bush: 59,459,765

Kerry: 55,949,507

Bush votes in Red States = 34,809,995.

Bush votes in Blue States = 24,649,770

Kerry votes in Blue States = 30,766,464

Kerry votes in Red States = 25,182,943

Percentage of total Bush votes from Blue states: 41.4 %

Percentage of total Kerry votes from Red states: 45.0%

In terms of raw totals, Kerry got about 700,000 more votes in enemy territory than Bush did. And because Kerry got fewer votes over all, this 700,000 naturally makes his percentage of Red State votes higher. So, for all intents and purposes, however, both candidates were statistically similar in garnering votes from states on the other side of the so-called Red/Blue Divide.

There are plenty of Republicans, or those simply holding conservative values, in the Blue states, enough that the Blue states don't actually look all that blue at the end of the day (perhaps explaining why four of the six New England states have GOP governors, or why NY has a GOP mayor and Governor. Or why both of PA's senators are Republicans.)

Likewise, the same can be said of the Democratic Party's strength in Red States. There's a 45.5 chance that the neighbor down the way in Jefferson Davis County, Red State, USA voted Democrat. Chew on that, Bushies!

It should be noted, however, that both Bush and Kerry's votes in enemy territory are padded by high numbers from states that they lost...barely.

If we subtract the votes for each candidate from states won by his opponent by less than 3%, we get this.

Bush Purple-Blues

-2,756,361 (PA)

- 330,848 (NH)

-1,345,168 (MN)

-1,477,122 (Wisconsin)

-2,306,324 (Michigan)

Kerry Purple-Reds

-393,372 (Nevada)

-362,340 (New Mexico)

-732,764 (Iowa)

-2,659,664 (Ohio)

Percentage of total Kerry votes from Red States minus Purple-Reds: 41%

Percentage of total Bush votes from Blue States minus Purple-Blues: 32%

So, what we learn here is that Kerry does better in deep Red States than Bush does in deep Blue States.

However, Kerry only topped one-million votes in *one* Purple-Red State, while Bush managed the feat in four similarly plotted Purple-Blues. So, on one hand, Kerry did better in enemy territory than Bush. On the other hand, the Blue States' superior population meant that Bush managed to closely contest a number of urbanized states, and marshal greater strength, even in losses, than Kerry managed in rural, less urbanized Bush states.

Bush was so close to winning in these Giant Purples, in fact, that had he carried 3 of the above 5 Purple-Blue states, the entire Red/Blue divide would have ceased to exist altogether. Hypothetical Bush wins in PA, Wisconsin, and NH would have seriously hindered talk of there being Democratic enclaves on the coasts and upper Midwest, as Red Country would begin right outside New York State and extend from the Gulf of Mexico to Lake Superior.

But, in searching for the real strength of the GOP at the national level, I'm most struck by their ability to elect House and Senate members in Blue States.

19 Blue States

GOP holds 41% of Blue House seats

GOP holds 23% of Blue Senate seats

31 Red States

Dems hold 34% of Red House seats

Dems hold 25% of Red Senate seats

So, with 62 Red State Senate seats to run at, the Dems only hold 16 of them. Statistically they have the same influence in enemy territory as the GOP does in Blue Senate seats, even though they have more seats to work with. Not good.

Similarly, the total number of Red State House seats is 225. The Dems hold 34% of these, while the GOP holds 41% of the 210 Blue State House seats.

But, let's now factor in the Purple-Blues and Purple-Reds.

Purple-Blues

PA: 12-7 GOP majority in House seats; 2-0 GOP majority in Senate seats.

New Hampshire: 2-0 GOP majority in House seats; 2-0 GOP majority in Senate seats.

Minnesota: 4-4 split in House seats; 1-1 split in Senate seats.

Wisconsin: 4-4 split in House seats; 2-0 Dem majority in Senate seats.

Michigan: 9-6 GOP majority in House seats; 2-0 Dem majority in Senate seats.

Total:

House: 31 GOP - 24 Dem

Senate: 5 GOP - 5 Dem

Purple-Reds

Iowa: 4-1 GOP majority in House seats; 1-1 split in Senate seats.

Nevada: 2-1 GOP majority in House seats; 1-1 split in Senate seats.

New Mexico: 2-1 GOP majority in House seats; 1-1 split in Senate seats.

Ohio: 12-6 GOP majority in House seats; 2-0 GOP majority in Senate seats.

Total:

House: 20 GOP - 9 Dem

Senate: 5 GOP - 3 Dem

The states Kerry barely lost are still quite Red at the Legislative level. The states Bush barely lost are a weak Red, but Red nonetheless at the Legislative level.

Overall, I'd say that when it comes to Federal races, the GOP is more competitive in so-called enemy territory than the Democrats. The GOP is better positioned electorally (for the time being) than the Dems, in that they have a rock solid base in the South, and just enough voters in the North to put them over the top nationally. Not only that, but the Upper Midwest appears to be trending Red. A more successful Iraq War or a stronger GOP POTUS candidate could very well have swung Wisconsin, Michigan, or PA into the GOP column. As it is, Wisconsin went Blue by the absolute slimmest of margins.

Look at it this way: Three of Connecticut's five House delegates are Republicans. Two of Alabama's seven House delegates are Democrats.

The Dems cannot be content to just sit back and assume that they have the total loyalty of today's Blue Staters. Statistically and electorally they don't. They must check and rollback remaining GOP power in Blue States, while also reaching out to the South and Heartland. It is a difficult two-step to say the least.

* * *

To throw a big wrench in all of this, check out the map of U.S. governorships (Color Montana and NH blue; Indiana and MO red). There's no real electoral pattern to speak of.

Also, the Wall St. Journal notes that the GOP suffered a series of losses in the State Legislatures in 2004.